Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Nerlens Noel is Ole Miss's Daddy

We all doubted that anyone could truly rival Anthony Davis as a shot blocker, let alone surpass him.  Somehow, Nerlens Noel is on his way to doing just that.  And as far as single game performances, Nerlens delivered the sort of defensive domination last night that was truly superior (in every way but the size of the stage) to even Davis's superb national title game in 2012.

With 12 blocks, Noel:

- broke the UK single-game record of 9 (held by Andre Riddick and Sam Bowie)

- tied the SEC single-game record of 12 (held by Shaquille O'Neal)

- utterly demoralized every member of the Rebel opposition.

Somehow, Nerlens managed five of the blocks AFTER his fourth foul.  During the first half, when he was bricking free throw after free throw, it was difficult to imagine him earning forgiveness.  Instead, he rendered Kentucky's continuing charity stripe struggles temporarily moot, and had the first game by a 2012-13 UK player truly worthy of national praise.

Remarkably, Noel is now ahead of Davis's BPG pace - 4.75 to 4.65.  With just six more blocks, he will become the 18th Wildcat with 100 for his career.


Saturday, January 26, 2013

History of #1 Seeds and #1 Teams in the NCAA Tournament

(updated through the 2016 tournament)

Since the NCAA tournament began seeding in the modern format (four regions, each seeded first to last) in 1979, #1 seeds have fared very well, and high seeds in general (#1-3) have done EXTREMELY well.  But there have been a few exceptions.


Out of 38 tournaments in this era:

- 23 have been won by #1 seeds (60.5%)

- 33 have been won by a team seeded 1, 2 or 3 (86.8%)

- The only sub-3 seed winners: 
4 seed Arizona (1997) 
6 seed NC State (1983)
6 seed KU (1988)
7 seed UConn (2014) 
8 seed Villanova (1985)


If you confine it to 1990 through 2016 (27 tournaments), it gets even chalkier:

- 18 have been won by #1 seeds (67%)
- 25 have been won by a team seeded 1, 2 or 3 (93%)
- The only exceptions: 4 seed Arizona (1997), 7 seed UConn (2014)


However, in spite of all this chalky success, the overall #1 team has not performed up to expectations.  The concept of an "overall #1 seed" hasn't existed long, so I substituted the #1 team from the final AP poll in each season in looking at this.


In the 38 tournaments with modern seeding:

Only 7 champions were the overall #1 seed (or ranked #1 in the era before the existence of such a measure):

1982 UNC
1992 Duke
1995 UCLA
2001 Duke
2007 Florida (note - they were #3 in final AP poll)
2012 Kentucky
2013 Louisville (note - they were #2 in final AP poll)

8 champions were ranked #2 (and had a #1 seed):

1980 Louisville
1984 Georgetown
1990 UNLV
1994 Arkansas
1996 Kentucky
2000 Michigan State
2005 UNC
2009 UNC

5 champions were ranked #3 (and had a #1 seed):

1979 Michigan State
1987 Indiana
1999 UConn
2010 Duke
2015 Duke (note - they were #4 in final AP poll)

3 champions were ranked #4 (and had a #1 seed):

1993 North Carolina
2002 Maryland
2008 Kansas

The rest of the champs:

1981 Indiana - ranked 9th, seeded #3

1983 NC State - ranked 16th, seeded #6

1985 Villanova - unranked, seeded #8

1986 Louisville - ranked 7th, seeded #2

1988 Kansas - unranked, seeded #6

1989 Michigan - ranked 10th, seeded #3

1991 Duke - ranked 6th, seeded #2

1997 Arizona - ranked 15th, seeded #4

1998 Kentucky - ranked 5th, seeded #2

2003 Syracuse - ranked 13th, seeded #3

2004 UConn - ranked 7th, seeded #2

2006 Florida - ranked 11th, seeded #3

2011 UConn - ranked 9th, seeded #3

2014 UConn - ranked 18th, overall seed 26th, seeded #7

2016 Villanova - ranked 6th, overall seeded 7th, seeded #2

What about the #1 teams (and overall #1 seeds) who have failed to get the job done?

1979 Indiana State - Runner-up

1980 DePaul - Round of 32 loss

1981 DePaul - Round of 32 loss

1983 Houston - Runner-up

1984 North Carolina - Sweet 16 loss

1985 Georgetown - Runner-up

1986 Duke - Runner-up

1987 UNLV - Final 4 loss

1988 Temple - Elite 8 loss

1989 Arizona - Sweet 16 loss

1990 Oklahoma - Round of 32 loss

1993 Indiana - Elite 8 loss

1994 North Carolina - Round of 32 loss

1996 UMass - Final 4 loss

1997 Kansas - Sweet 16 loss

1998 North Carolina - Final 4 loss

1999 Duke - Runner-up

2000 Duke - Sweet 16 loss

2002 Duke - Sweet 16 loss

2003 Kentucky - Elite 8 loss

2004 Stanford - Round of 32 loss

2005 Illinois - Runner-up

2006 Duke - Sweet 16 loss

2008 Memphis - Runner-up (vacated)

2009 Louisville - Elite 8 loss

2010 Kansas - Round of 32 loss

2011 Ohio State - Sweet 16 loss

2014 Florida - Final 4 loss

2015 Kentucky - Final 4 loss

2016 Kansas - Elite 8 loss

UK's history in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8

(updated 3/30/15)

SWEET 16

Including the 2015 tournament, UK has been among the final 16 teams competing for an NCAA title 45 times.  They've actually only played 41 games in the round of 16 - because in the four 1940s tournaments they played in, they were already in the Elite 8 just by being invited.  The tournament expanded to 16 in 1951, and of course continued to expand as the years went by. 


In the seeded era (37 tournaments through 2015), Kentucky has participated in 31 tournaments, and reached the Round of 16 a total of 21 times (67% of the time).  In 1980, 1983 and 1984, this required only 1 win.  The other 19, since 1985, all required two wins because the tournament expanded to 6 rounds that year.

*note: they actually made it to 22 Sweet 16s during this era, but were stripped of their two tournament wins in 1988

In the seeded era of the Sweet 16, Kentucky has a record of 17-4 (81%).  In the entire history of the tournament, their record in the round of 16 is 32-9 (78%).

Wins in seeded era: Indiana (83), Louisville (84), Alabama (86), UMass (92), Wake Forest (93), Arizona State (95), Utah (96), St. Joseph's (97), UCLA (98), Miami OH (99), Wisconsin (03), Utah (05), Cornell (10), Ohio State (11), Indiana (12), Louisville (14), West Virginia (15)

Losses in seeded era: Duke (80), St. John's (85), Villanova (88), USC (01), Maryland (02)

Note: 1988 loss to Villanova was voided by probation.

Wins before seeded era: Louisville (51), Penn State (52), Wayne State (56), Pittsburgh (57), Miami OH (58), Morehead (61), Butler (62), Dayton (66), Marquette (68), Notre Dame (70), Marquette (72), Austin Peay (73), Central Michigan (75), VMI (77), Miami OH (78)

Losses before seeded era: Marquette (55), Louisville (59), Ohio (64), Marquette (69), Western Kentucky (71)

Playing as a #1 seed in the round of 16, Kentucky has a record of 10-1 (91%).  Their only loss came in 1980 to the 4 seed Duke.  Most of the time, they've faced a 5-seed, and are a perfect 6-0 against those as a #1 in the Sweet 16.  

Wins: #5 Louisville (84), #5 Alabama (86), #5 Wake Forest (93), #5 Arizona State (95), #4 Utah (96), #4 St. Joseph's (97), #5 Wisconsin (03), #12 Cornell (10), #4 Indiana (12), #5 West Virginia (15)

Losses: #4 Duke (80)

ELITE EIGHT

Unfortunately, in both the modern (seeded) era of the tournament and in the earlier years, UK has always struggled in the Round of 8 more than any other round - the main reason why, in spite of their superior success in so many other statistical categories, they lag slightly behind UCLA (17) and UNC (18) in Final Four appearances.  UK has 16, and all three schools are still in the running in 2015.

The Wildcats are only 9-8 in the seeded era (53%), and 17-19 all-time (47%) in Elite 8 games.

Wins in the seeded era: Illinois (84), Florida State (93), Wake Forest (96), Utah (97), Duke (98), UNC (11), Baylor (12), Michigan (14), Notre Dame (15)

Losses in the seeded era: Louisville (83), LSU (86), Duke (92), UNC (95), Michigan State (99), Michigan State (05), Marquette (03), West Virginia (10)

Wins before seeded era: Illinois (42), Columbia (48), Villanova (49), St. John's (51), Notre Dame (58), Michigan (66), Indiana (75), Michigan State (78)

Losses before seeded era: Ohio State (45), St. John's (52), Iowa (56), Michigan State (57), Ohio State (61), Ohio State (62), Ohio State (68), Jacksonville (70), Florida State (72), Indiana (73), UNC (77), 

Important note: in the earliest years (before 1951), there were only 8 teams involved, so the regional final was actually part of the final 4.  There were only two "regions" instead of 4.  


As a #1 seed in the modern Elite 8, UK is a more respectable 7-4 (64%).  

Wins: #2 Illinois (84), #3 FSU (93), #2 Wake Forest (96), #2 Utah (97), #2 UNC (11), #3 Baylor (12), #3 Notre Dame (15)

Losses: #11 LSU (86), #2 UNC (95), #3 Marquette (03), #2 West Virginia (10)

Among other websites consulted, one of my main sources for this and many other posts is the peerless UK resource (and probably the best site of its kind for any sports team) known as "The Kentucky Basketball Statistics Project" operated by Jon Scott.  Available at http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/statistics.html 

Kentucky basketball vs. Indiana all-time (15 different arenas)

The Kentucky-Indiana regular-season series was played annually from 1969 through 2011, after the teams had met a combined 8 times during the 1920s and 1940s.  Of the 52 regular season games, 27 have been played at neutral sites.


UK is 32-25 in the series (56%).  Since the annual rivalry started in 1969, UK went 26-17 in those regular season matchups (60%).


NCAA Tournament games: 3-2 (60%)
Georgia Dome (Atlanta): 1-0 (2012 Sweet 16)
Stokely Center (Knoxville): 1-0 (1983 Sweet 16)
University of Dayton Arena: 1-0 (1975 Regional Final)
Wells Fargo Arena (Des Moines): 0-1 (2016 Second Round)
Memorial Gymnasium (Nashville): 0-1 (1973 Regional Final)


Regular season neutral court games: 15-9 (63%)
Freedom Hall (Louisville): 7-3 (70%) (0-3 in the 1970s, undefeated in the 1990s and 2000s)
Jefferson County Armory (Louisville): 2-1 (67%) (1940s)
Hoosierdome / RCA Dome (Indianapolis): 6-4 (60%) (1980s through 2005)
Municipal Auditorium (New Orleans): 0-1 (1940 "Sugar Bowl")


Home games: 10-3 (77%)
Memorial Coliseum: 2-0 (100%) (1960s)
Rupp Arena: 8-1 (89%) (1977-1988, 2006-2010)
Alumni Gymnasium: 0-2 (1920s)


Road games: 4-11 (27%)
"New" Indiana Fieldhouse: 1-0 (100%) (1970)
Assembly Hall: 3-9 (25%) (1972-1990, 2007-2011)
"Old" Indiana Fieldhouse: 0-2 (1920s)

Among other websites consulted, one of my main sources for this and many other posts is the peerless UK resource (and probably the best site of its kind for any sports team) known as "The Kentucky Basketball Statistics Project" operated by Jon Scott.  Available at http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/statistics.html

Kentucky basketball vs. Louisville all-time (14 different arenas)

UK is 34-16 all-time against the Cardinals.


In the modern home-and-home series (initiated after the "Dream Game" in 1983), Kentucky leads 22-12.


Regular season home games: UK is 17-5 (77.3%)

Rupp Arena: 13-4 (games played in 1983 through present) - 76.5%
Buell Armory Gymnasium: 3-0 (1913, 1914, 1922)
Woodland Auditorium: 1-1 


Did you know?  UK never played UofL in Alumni Gym or in Memorial Coliseum.  Crazy, right?  


Regular season road games: UK is 12-9 (57%)

Freedom Hall: 7-6 (1984 through 2009) - 53.8%
Yum! Center: 2-2 (2010 through 2016) - 50.0%
St. Xavier Gym: 1-0 (1922)
Louisville YMCA: 1-1 (1915, 1916)
Tharp Gymnasium: 1-0 (1914)


NCAA Tournament Games: UK is 4-2 (60%)

Wins:
2014 Midwest Regional Semifinal at Lucas Oil Stadium
2012 National Semifinal at the Superdome
1984 Mideast Regional Semifinal at Rupp Arena
1951 East Regional 1st Round at Reynolds Coliseum (Raleigh)

Losses:
1983 Mideast Regional Final at Stokely Center (Knoxville)
1959 Mideast Regional Semifinal at McGaw Memorial Hall (Evanston)


Other: UK is 1-0
Old Madison Square Garden (NYC, 1948 Olympic Trials): 1-0


One final, happy note:
- UK has won three (or more) in a row against UofL EIGHT times, and UofL has never accomplished a three game winning streak against UK.

Among other websites consulted, one of my main sources for this and many other posts is the peerless UK resource (and probably the best site of its kind for any sports team) known as "The Kentucky Basketball Statistics Project" operated by Jon Scott.  Available at http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/statistics.html