This year, a total of 9 of the 16 top-4 seeds have lost.
1 Virginia
1 Xavier
2 Cincinnati
2 UNC
3 Tennessee
3 Michigan State
4 Arizona
4 Wichita State
4 Auburn
But it isn't the first time. 9 top-4 seeds also went down in:
1986
1990
2000 (including two #1 seeds, like this year)
And 8 of them went down in:
1987
1999
2005
2010
However, given the fact that the number 1 OVERALL seed lost this year (and in the first round, to a 16), I'll give this year the nod as the new craziest opening weekend.
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QUESTION 2 - Is the 2018 South Region Dumpster Fire the most absurd bracket quadrant ever?
If you add up the total seed numbers remaining, here is the list of craziest Sweet 16 regions:
34 (1+10+11+12) in 2011 Southwest Region) - #11 VCU advanced to the Final Four by playing a 10 and 1 seed, but lost in a national semifinal.
34 (1+7+12+14 in 1986 East Region) - #1 Duke advanced to the Final Four by playing a 12 and 7 seed, but lost in the title game.
32 (5+7+9+11 in 2018 South Region) - Results to be determined.
31 (1+7+11+12 in 2001 South Region) - #1 Michigan State advanced to the Final Four by playing a 12 and 11 seed, but lost in a national semifinal game.
31 (1+7+11+12 in 1990 West Region) - #1 UNLV advanced to the Final Four by playing a 12 and 11 seed, and then won the tournament.
30 (2+6+9+13 in 2013 West Region) - #9 Wichita State advanced to the Final Four by playing a 13 and 2 seed, but lost in a national semifinal game.
This year's South doesn't have the highest total...but there are two HUGE things in its favor in this argument:
- lack of ANY top 4 seeds (which has never happened before)
- UMBC over Virginia, obviously
So, yes, I would say this is the craziest region ever (so far). It's a shame UMBC couldn't take down Kansas State to really cement this year in history, but I think we'll always remember the 2018 South. Bring on Atlanta!
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QUESTION 3 - Would UK's path to a Final Four be the easiest ever?
In the region seed total list above, you can see a few of the unexpectedly "easy" paths faced by certain regional winners in past years.
Here is the all-time list (since 1985) of worst seed totals faced to reach the Final Four (eventual champions in red):
1991 #1 UNC - 47 (16, 9, 12, 10)
1990 #1 UNLV - 47 (16, 8, 12, 11)
2008 #1 Kansas - 46 (16, 8, 12, 10)
1993 #1 Michigan - 44 (16, 9, 12, 7)
1999 #1 Duke - 43 (16, 9, 12, 6)
1990 #4 Arkansas - 43 (13, 12, 8, 10)
1986 #1 Duke - 43 (16, 8, 12, 7)
1999 #1 Michigan State - 41 (16, 9, 13, 3)
2014 #1 Florida - 40 (16, 9, 4, 11)
2008 #1 UCLA - 40 (16, 9, 12, 3)
2005 #1 Illinois - 40 (16, 9, 12, 3)
1999 #1 UConn - 40 (16, 9, 5, 10)
1994 #1 Arkansas - 40 (16, 9, 12, 3)
2017 #1 Gonzaga - 39 (16, 8, 4, 11)
1987 #1 Indiana - 39 (16, 8, 5, 10)
1987 #1 UNLV - 39 (16, 9, 12, 2)
2013 #1 Louisville - 38 (16, 8, 12, 2)
2015 #2 Kansas - 37 (15, 10, 11, 1)
2010 #2 WVU - 37 (15, 10, 11, 1)
2016 #1 UNC - 36 (16, 9, 5, 6)
2002 #5 Indiana - 36 (12, 13, 1, 10)
2001 #3 Maryland - 36 (14, 11, 10, 1)
1997 #1 UNC - 36 (16, 9, 5, 6)
1997 #4 Arizona - 36 (13, 12, 1, 10)
(note: the lowest possible totals for each seed are 30 for a 1 seed, 26 for a 2 seed, 23 for a 3 seed, 21 for a 4 seed, 19 for a 5 seed, 17 for a 6 seed, 16 for a 7 seed, 16 for an 8 seed, 15 for a 9 seed, 13 for a 10 seed, 12 for an 11 seed, 12 for a 12 seed, 12 for a 13 seed, 12 for a 14 seed, 13 for a 15 seed, and 15 for a 16 seed).
If Kentucky makes the Final Four, it will have faced either:
12+13+9+7 = 41 (tied for 8th easiest path ever)
or
12+13+9+11 = 45 (4th easiest path ever)
So, it would be high on the list (not #1)...but with UNC appearing three times, Duke twice, Kansas twice, Indiana twice, UNLV twice, and Arkansas twice on the list above (zero appearances for UK - its highest/easiest total for any of its eight Final Fours in the era was 32), it's about time UK got some of that luck.
Check out the chalk-lined roads they've faced to hang these eight Final Four banners since 1985:
1993 #1 UK = 32 (lowest possible = 30)
1996 #1 UK = 31 (lowest possible = 30)
1997 #1 UK = 30 (lowest possible = 30)
1998 #2 UK = 32 (lowest possible = 26)
2011 #4 UK = 21 (lowest possible = 21)
2012 #1 UK = 31 (lowest possible = 30)
2014 #8 UK = 16 (lowest possible = 16)
2015 #1 UK = 32 (lowest possible = 30)
Even in 1998, UK just faced a 10 (instead of a 7) and a 6 (instead of a 3) to account for the difference.
So, in summary...my answers to the questions posed are yes, yes and no.
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