Will there be a 5th bid for the SEC? If so, who gets it?

We all hate our conference rivals throughout the regular season, but it's good to have some conference bragging rights at tournament time.

One positive is that at least our overall conference RPI is OK this season - 4th behind the Big Ten, Big East and Big 12, and ahead of the MWC, ACC and Pac 12.

The issue at hand is whether we can get a 5th team in. In the 20 tournaments since the SEC expanded to 12 teams, the SEC has had at least 5 bids in 14 tournaments (70% of the time), and 6 bids in 8 years (40% of the time).

The only exceptions:
1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, 2010 = 4 bids
2009 = 3 bids

Kentucky and Florida are locks.
Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are nearly locks as well, barring collapses.

Lunardi currently has Alabama listed as an 8 seed, comfortably in the tournament. But as we all know, they've suspended a number of star players and just lost at lowly LSU. They are in real danger of blowing their bid, and most likely will, unless those players return to action.


Some details on the three teams with a chance, all of whom have 5-5 league records:

Alabama - around 30th in the RPI, with a great win over Wichita State and one bad loss at South Carolina. Two SEC road wins, and 4 of 6 remaining games are at home. If it weren't for the suspensions, I think they would easily make it into the tournament.

Ole Miss - around 50-55 in the RPI, with two good wins over Miami and Mississippi State, and one bad loss at Auburn. One SEC road win, and they have 3 home and 3 road remaining.

Arkansas - around 65-70 in the RPI. A great team at home (undefeated in league play and an excellent win over Michigan, although one puzzling early loss to Houston). A horrible team on the road. They have chances to improve their rating with home wins over Florida and Alabama...but they'll also probably lose at Tennessee and take an RPI blow from that.

My unfortunate conclusion is that if Anthony Grant can't right the ship quickly, the SEC will only have four bids.