Sunday, April 1, 2012

Kentucky's "easiest" run to the title game?

For any diehard UK fan, this has been a (Ryan?) harrowing, but extremely rewarding NCAA Tournament to follow.  We endured three interminable waits before three awkward (in the case of WKU) or bitter (IU and UofL) rivalry games.  In between, we battled two Big 12 opponents which presented differing strategic challenges.


However, if you believe what Cal says (that the team doesn't really care about the rivalry pressure), then this has arguably been UK's easiest road to the title game since their very first one in 1948.  I wouldn't necessarily make that argument myself, for two main reasons:


1) More games now (1948/49 - 2 wins needed to reach title, 1951/58/66 - 3, 1975/78 - 4)
2) Regardless of what Cal says, I think the enormous fan pressure carries over to the team, and the IU and UofL games were absolutely draining experiences for all involved.


Still, from a purely objective perspective, the fact remains that this is UK's first title game appearance since 1948 (when the AP Poll didn't exist yet) without having to beat a top-5 opponent.  You may also dispute the validity of the polls (which I often do), and teams like 2012 Louisville clearly can catch fire and play at a level above that which their rankings would indicate.  On the flip side, Kansas may have faced a highly-ranked UNC team, but without Kendall Marshall that ranking (and seed) were essentially meaningless.  Let's make a list anyway, shall we?

 UK's Roads to the Title Game, Past and Present (rankings are final AP poll):

1948 - Columbia, Holy Cross

1949 - #14 Villanova, #4 Illinois

1951 - Louisville, #9 St. John's, #5 Illinois
 
1958 - Miami OH, #8 Notre Dame, #5 Temple

1966 - #19 Dayton, #9 Michigan, #2 Duke

1975 - #10 Marquette, C Michigan, #1 Indiana, #6 Syracuse

1978 - #15 FSU, #19 Miami OH, #4 Michigan State, #5 Arkansas

1996 - SJSU, #16 Va. Tech, #10 Utah, #13 Wake Forest, #1 UMass

1997 - Montana, Iowa, #12 St. Joseph's, #2 Utah, #3 Minnesota

1998 - SC State, St. Louis, #19 UCLA, #3 Duke, #10 Stanford

2012 - WKU, Iowa St., #16 Indiana, #9 Baylor, #17 Louisville




Using this (admittedly) heavily flawed approach, it seems like the toughest years were:
1) 1975 - three top-10 teams (including an undefeated IU squad)
2) 1978 - four ranked teams, two top-5 teams
3) 1997 - two top-3 teams


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