As all UK fans know, the Wildcats dominate in virtually every way (other than total titles...a distinction belonging to UCLA only because of one Sam Gilbert...but that's none of my business).
Let's check out some AP poll statistics, shall we? This poll didn't begin until 1949, so it eliminates a few of UK's best seasons (1945-48).
Most weeks at #1:
1) UCLA - 134
2) DUKE - 129
3) KENTUCKY - 124
4) NORTH CAROLINA - 110
5) KANSAS - 63
6) INDIANA - 54
7) CINCINNATI - 45
8) ARIZONA - 37
8) OHIO STATE - 37
10) UNLV - 32
Most weeks in top 5:
1) KENTUCKY - 453
2) NORTH CAROLINA - 426
3) DUKE - 381
4) KANSAS - 333
5) UCLA - 308
6) INDIANA - 179
7) ARIZONA - 143
8) OHIO STATE - 142
9) CINCINNATI - 126
10) LOUISVILLE - 125
Most weeks in top 10:
1) KENTUCKY - 674
2) NORTH CAROLINA - 654
3) DUKE - 636
4) KANSAS - 520
5) UCLA - 455
6) ARIZONA - 288
7) INDIANA - 282
8) LOUISVILLE - 281
9) SYRACUSE - 255
10) OHIO STATE - 225
10) ILLINOIS - 225
Most appearances in the AP Poll:
1) NORTH CAROLINA - 871
2) KENTUCKY - 856
3) DUKE - 767
4) KANSAS - 720
5) UCLA - 682
6) LOUISVILLE - 616
7) INDIANA - 554
8) SYRACUSE - 547
9) ARIZONA - 513
10) ILLINOIS - 445
If you weight each of these evenly...
1) KENTUCKY - 37 points
2) NORTH CAROLINA - 35 points
3) DUKE - 33 points
4) UCLA - 28 points
5) KANSAS - 27 points
6) INDIANA - 18 points
7) ARIZONA - 14 points
8) LOUISVILLE - 9 points
9) OHIO STATE - 7 points
10) CINCINNATI - 6 points
Showing posts with label ap poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ap poll. Show all posts
Monday, January 23, 2017
Saturday, January 26, 2013
History of #1 Seeds and #1 Teams in the NCAA Tournament
(updated through the 2016 tournament)
Since the NCAA tournament began seeding in the modern format (four regions, each seeded first to last) in 1979, #1 seeds have fared very well, and high seeds in general (#1-3) have done EXTREMELY well. But there have been a few exceptions.
Out of 38 tournaments in this era:
- 23 have been won by #1 seeds (60.5%)
- 33 have been won by a team seeded 1, 2 or 3 (86.8%)
- The only sub-3 seed winners:
4 seed Arizona (1997)
6 seed NC State (1983)
6 seed KU (1988)
7 seed UConn (2014)
8 seed Villanova (1985)
If you confine it to 1990 through 2016 (27 tournaments), it gets even chalkier:
- 18 have been won by #1 seeds (67%)
- 25 have been won by a team seeded 1, 2 or 3 (93%)
- The only exceptions: 4 seed Arizona (1997), 7 seed UConn (2014)
However, in spite of all this chalky success, the overall #1 team has not performed up to expectations. The concept of an "overall #1 seed" hasn't existed long, so I substituted the #1 team from the final AP poll in each season in looking at this.
In the 38 tournaments with modern seeding:
Only 7 champions were the overall #1 seed (or ranked #1 in the era before the existence of such a measure):
1982 UNC
1992 Duke
1995 UCLA
2001 Duke
2007 Florida (note - they were #3 in final AP poll)
2012 Kentucky
2013 Louisville (note - they were #2 in final AP poll)
8 champions were ranked #2 (and had a #1 seed):
1980 Louisville
1984 Georgetown
1990 UNLV
1994 Arkansas
1996 Kentucky
2000 Michigan State
2005 UNC
2009 UNC
5 champions were ranked #3 (and had a #1 seed):
1979 Michigan State
1987 Indiana
1999 UConn
2010 Duke
2015 Duke (note - they were #4 in final AP poll)
3 champions were ranked #4 (and had a #1 seed):
1993 North Carolina
2002 Maryland
2008 Kansas
The rest of the champs:
1981 Indiana - ranked 9th, seeded #3
1983 NC State - ranked 16th, seeded #6
1985 Villanova - unranked, seeded #8
1986 Louisville - ranked 7th, seeded #2
1988 Kansas - unranked, seeded #6
1989 Michigan - ranked 10th, seeded #3
1991 Duke - ranked 6th, seeded #2
1997 Arizona - ranked 15th, seeded #4
1998 Kentucky - ranked 5th, seeded #2
2003 Syracuse - ranked 13th, seeded #3
2004 UConn - ranked 7th, seeded #2
2006 Florida - ranked 11th, seeded #3
2011 UConn - ranked 9th, seeded #3
2014 UConn - ranked 18th, overall seed 26th, seeded #7
2016 Villanova - ranked 6th, overall seeded 7th, seeded #2
What about the #1 teams (and overall #1 seeds) who have failed to get the job done?
1979 Indiana State - Runner-up
1980 DePaul - Round of 32 loss
1981 DePaul - Round of 32 loss
1983 Houston - Runner-up
1984 North Carolina - Sweet 16 loss
1985 Georgetown - Runner-up
1986 Duke - Runner-up
1987 UNLV - Final 4 loss
1988 Temple - Elite 8 loss
1989 Arizona - Sweet 16 loss
1990 Oklahoma - Round of 32 loss
1993 Indiana - Elite 8 loss
1994 North Carolina - Round of 32 loss
1996 UMass - Final 4 loss
1997 Kansas - Sweet 16 loss
1998 North Carolina - Final 4 loss
1999 Duke - Runner-up
2000 Duke - Sweet 16 loss
2002 Duke - Sweet 16 loss
2003 Kentucky - Elite 8 loss
2004 Stanford - Round of 32 loss
2005 Illinois - Runner-up
2006 Duke - Sweet 16 loss
2008 Memphis - Runner-up (vacated)
2009 Louisville - Elite 8 loss
2010 Kansas - Round of 32 loss
2011 Ohio State - Sweet 16 loss
2014 Florida - Final 4 loss
2015 Kentucky - Final 4 loss
2016 Kansas - Elite 8 loss
Since the NCAA tournament began seeding in the modern format (four regions, each seeded first to last) in 1979, #1 seeds have fared very well, and high seeds in general (#1-3) have done EXTREMELY well. But there have been a few exceptions.
Out of 38 tournaments in this era:
- 23 have been won by #1 seeds (60.5%)
- 33 have been won by a team seeded 1, 2 or 3 (86.8%)
- The only sub-3 seed winners:
4 seed Arizona (1997)
6 seed NC State (1983)
6 seed KU (1988)
7 seed UConn (2014)
8 seed Villanova (1985)
If you confine it to 1990 through 2016 (27 tournaments), it gets even chalkier:
- 18 have been won by #1 seeds (67%)
- 25 have been won by a team seeded 1, 2 or 3 (93%)
- The only exceptions: 4 seed Arizona (1997), 7 seed UConn (2014)
However, in spite of all this chalky success, the overall #1 team has not performed up to expectations. The concept of an "overall #1 seed" hasn't existed long, so I substituted the #1 team from the final AP poll in each season in looking at this.
In the 38 tournaments with modern seeding:
Only 7 champions were the overall #1 seed (or ranked #1 in the era before the existence of such a measure):
1982 UNC
1992 Duke
1995 UCLA
2001 Duke
2007 Florida (note - they were #3 in final AP poll)
2012 Kentucky
2013 Louisville (note - they were #2 in final AP poll)
8 champions were ranked #2 (and had a #1 seed):
1980 Louisville
1984 Georgetown
1990 UNLV
1994 Arkansas
1996 Kentucky
2000 Michigan State
2005 UNC
2009 UNC
5 champions were ranked #3 (and had a #1 seed):
1979 Michigan State
1987 Indiana
1999 UConn
2010 Duke
2015 Duke (note - they were #4 in final AP poll)
3 champions were ranked #4 (and had a #1 seed):
1993 North Carolina
2002 Maryland
2008 Kansas
The rest of the champs:
1981 Indiana - ranked 9th, seeded #3
1983 NC State - ranked 16th, seeded #6
1985 Villanova - unranked, seeded #8
1986 Louisville - ranked 7th, seeded #2
1988 Kansas - unranked, seeded #6
1989 Michigan - ranked 10th, seeded #3
1991 Duke - ranked 6th, seeded #2
1997 Arizona - ranked 15th, seeded #4
1998 Kentucky - ranked 5th, seeded #2
2003 Syracuse - ranked 13th, seeded #3
2004 UConn - ranked 7th, seeded #2
2006 Florida - ranked 11th, seeded #3
2011 UConn - ranked 9th, seeded #3
2014 UConn - ranked 18th, overall seed 26th, seeded #7
2016 Villanova - ranked 6th, overall seeded 7th, seeded #2
What about the #1 teams (and overall #1 seeds) who have failed to get the job done?
1979 Indiana State - Runner-up
1980 DePaul - Round of 32 loss
1981 DePaul - Round of 32 loss
1983 Houston - Runner-up
1984 North Carolina - Sweet 16 loss
1985 Georgetown - Runner-up
1986 Duke - Runner-up
1987 UNLV - Final 4 loss
1988 Temple - Elite 8 loss
1989 Arizona - Sweet 16 loss
1990 Oklahoma - Round of 32 loss
1993 Indiana - Elite 8 loss
1994 North Carolina - Round of 32 loss
1996 UMass - Final 4 loss
1997 Kansas - Sweet 16 loss
1998 North Carolina - Final 4 loss
1999 Duke - Runner-up
2000 Duke - Sweet 16 loss
2002 Duke - Sweet 16 loss
2003 Kentucky - Elite 8 loss
2004 Stanford - Round of 32 loss
2005 Illinois - Runner-up
2006 Duke - Sweet 16 loss
2008 Memphis - Runner-up (vacated)
2009 Louisville - Elite 8 loss
2010 Kansas - Round of 32 loss
2011 Ohio State - Sweet 16 loss
2014 Florida - Final 4 loss
2015 Kentucky - Final 4 loss
2016 Kansas - Elite 8 loss
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Kentucky's "easiest" run to the title game?
For any diehard UK fan, this has been a (Ryan?) harrowing, but extremely rewarding NCAA Tournament to follow. We endured three interminable waits before three awkward (in the case of WKU) or bitter (IU and UofL) rivalry games. In between, we battled two Big 12 opponents which presented differing strategic challenges.
However, if you believe what Cal says (that the team doesn't really care about the rivalry pressure), then this has arguably been UK's easiest road to the title game since their very first one in 1948. I wouldn't necessarily make that argument myself, for two main reasons:
1) More games now (1948/49 - 2 wins needed to reach title, 1951/58/66 - 3, 1975/78 - 4)
2) Regardless of what Cal says, I think the enormous fan pressure carries over to the team, and the IU and UofL games were absolutely draining experiences for all involved.
Still, from a purely objective perspective, the fact remains that this is UK's first title game appearance since 1948 (when the AP Poll didn't exist yet) without having to beat a top-5 opponent. You may also dispute the validity of the polls (which I often do), and teams like 2012 Louisville clearly can catch fire and play at a level above that which their rankings would indicate. On the flip side, Kansas may have faced a highly-ranked UNC team, but without Kendall Marshall that ranking (and seed) were essentially meaningless. Let's make a list anyway, shall we?
UK's Roads to the Title Game, Past and Present (rankings are final AP poll):
1948 - Columbia, Holy Cross
1949 - #14 Villanova, #4 Illinois
1951 - Louisville, #9 St. John's, #5 Illinois
1958 - Miami OH, #8 Notre Dame, #5 Temple
1966 - #19 Dayton, #9 Michigan, #2 Duke
1975 - #10 Marquette, C Michigan, #1 Indiana, #6 Syracuse
1978 - #15 FSU, #19 Miami OH, #4 Michigan State, #5 Arkansas
1996 - SJSU, #16 Va. Tech, #10 Utah, #13 Wake Forest, #1 UMass
1997 - Montana, Iowa, #12 St. Joseph's, #2 Utah, #3 Minnesota
1998 - SC State, St. Louis, #19 UCLA, #3 Duke, #10 Stanford
2012 - WKU, Iowa St., #16 Indiana, #9 Baylor, #17 Louisville
Using this (admittedly) heavily flawed approach, it seems like the toughest years were:
1) 1975 - three top-10 teams (including an undefeated IU squad)
2) 1978 - four ranked teams, two top-5 teams
3) 1997 - two top-3 teams
However, if you believe what Cal says (that the team doesn't really care about the rivalry pressure), then this has arguably been UK's easiest road to the title game since their very first one in 1948. I wouldn't necessarily make that argument myself, for two main reasons:
1) More games now (1948/49 - 2 wins needed to reach title, 1951/58/66 - 3, 1975/78 - 4)
2) Regardless of what Cal says, I think the enormous fan pressure carries over to the team, and the IU and UofL games were absolutely draining experiences for all involved.
Still, from a purely objective perspective, the fact remains that this is UK's first title game appearance since 1948 (when the AP Poll didn't exist yet) without having to beat a top-5 opponent. You may also dispute the validity of the polls (which I often do), and teams like 2012 Louisville clearly can catch fire and play at a level above that which their rankings would indicate. On the flip side, Kansas may have faced a highly-ranked UNC team, but without Kendall Marshall that ranking (and seed) were essentially meaningless. Let's make a list anyway, shall we?
UK's Roads to the Title Game, Past and Present (rankings are final AP poll):
1948 - Columbia, Holy Cross
1949 - #14 Villanova, #4 Illinois
1951 - Louisville, #9 St. John's, #5 Illinois
1958 - Miami OH, #8 Notre Dame, #5 Temple
1966 - #19 Dayton, #9 Michigan, #2 Duke
1975 - #10 Marquette, C Michigan, #1 Indiana, #6 Syracuse
1978 - #15 FSU, #19 Miami OH, #4 Michigan State, #5 Arkansas
1996 - SJSU, #16 Va. Tech, #10 Utah, #13 Wake Forest, #1 UMass
1997 - Montana, Iowa, #12 St. Joseph's, #2 Utah, #3 Minnesota
1998 - SC State, St. Louis, #19 UCLA, #3 Duke, #10 Stanford
2012 - WKU, Iowa St., #16 Indiana, #9 Baylor, #17 Louisville
Using this (admittedly) heavily flawed approach, it seems like the toughest years were:
1) 1975 - three top-10 teams (including an undefeated IU squad)
2) 1978 - four ranked teams, two top-5 teams
3) 1997 - two top-3 teams
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Most impressive regular season run at the top since...?
Being #1 obviously puts a target on your back, and this UK team has withstood the pressure unlike many in recent seasons. This week, UK will remain #1 for the 7th consecutive AP poll.
Over the last few years, a number of teams have put together equal or better streaks:
2005-06 Duke = preseason #1, plus 10 additional weeks
2007-08 UNC = preseason #1, plus 10 additional weeks
2008-09 UNC = preseason #1, plus 7 additional weeks
2009-10 KU = preseason #1, plus 8 additional weeks
2010-11 Duke = preseason #1, plus 9 additional weeks
The obvious caveat here: all of the above streaks began at the season's outset, when it's arguably easier to retain the #1 ranking against an often-shoddy non-conference schedule. Sure you might be tested in an early-season tournament or in-state rivalry game, but you won't be challenged as consistently as you are during the conference schedule.
Therefore, I think you have to go back to 2004-05 to find a run at the top more striking than this Kentucky team. That year's Illinois team stayed at #1 for a remarkable 15 weeks through the heart of the season, before going on to lose in the national title game.
Over the last few years, a number of teams have put together equal or better streaks:
2005-06 Duke = preseason #1, plus 10 additional weeks
2007-08 UNC = preseason #1, plus 10 additional weeks
2008-09 UNC = preseason #1, plus 7 additional weeks
2009-10 KU = preseason #1, plus 8 additional weeks
2010-11 Duke = preseason #1, plus 9 additional weeks
The obvious caveat here: all of the above streaks began at the season's outset, when it's arguably easier to retain the #1 ranking against an often-shoddy non-conference schedule. Sure you might be tested in an early-season tournament or in-state rivalry game, but you won't be challenged as consistently as you are during the conference schedule.
Therefore, I think you have to go back to 2004-05 to find a run at the top more striking than this Kentucky team. That year's Illinois team stayed at #1 for a remarkable 15 weeks through the heart of the season, before going on to lose in the national title game.
Congrats to the Cats: First set of objectives complete
1) First 30-win regular season in Kentucky history.
2) Third 16-0 SEC team of all-time (all by UK teams - 1996, 2003, 2012).
3) This team's streak of 22 straight wins is the sixth-longest single-season winning streak in UK history (record is 27), and the eighth-longest overall (including those spanning multiple seasons, record is 32).
4) Will remain #1 in the AP poll for the seventh straight week (UK's longest streak since 11 consecutive weeks during the 1977-78 season).
2) Third 16-0 SEC team of all-time (all by UK teams - 1996, 2003, 2012).
3) This team's streak of 22 straight wins is the sixth-longest single-season winning streak in UK history (record is 27), and the eighth-longest overall (including those spanning multiple seasons, record is 32).
4) Will remain #1 in the AP poll for the seventh straight week (UK's longest streak since 11 consecutive weeks during the 1977-78 season).
Sunday, January 22, 2012
UK headed back to #1...a few AP poll statistics
This week should be UK's 92nd appearance at #1 in the AP poll. That total trails UCLA (134), Duke (122) and UNC (108). So to those who say "I don't want to be #1 until April," I understand the sentiment but it'd be nice to catch up somewhat in this statistic. Also, fear not: UK has a solid 152-25 record all-time at #1, which is an 85.9% winning rate.
Obviously being #1 makes us even more of a target. The teams who've knocked us off our perch most often:
Vandy (4 times)
St. Louis (3)
Georgia Tech (3)
Indiana (2)
Mississippi State (2)
Title seasons during which UK was ranked #1: 1949, 1951, 1978, 1996 (but not in '48, '58 or '98)
By my count this is the 9th different season during which UK lost and then regained the #1 ranking. Three of the previous times, the ranking was lost without an actual loss on the court...pollsters just got tired of the Cats, I suppose. And three of the previous eight occurrences were during title years - '51, '78, and '96.
This is the 18th season and 24th different calendar year with UK rated as #1.
Thanks again to Jon Scott's site (http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/statistics.html) as one of the main resources for questions like this. I also consulted collegepollarchive.com for this post.
Obviously being #1 makes us even more of a target. The teams who've knocked us off our perch most often:
Vandy (4 times)
St. Louis (3)
Georgia Tech (3)
Indiana (2)
Mississippi State (2)
Title seasons during which UK was ranked #1: 1949, 1951, 1978, 1996 (but not in '48, '58 or '98)
By my count this is the 9th different season during which UK lost and then regained the #1 ranking. Three of the previous times, the ranking was lost without an actual loss on the court...pollsters just got tired of the Cats, I suppose. And three of the previous eight occurrences were during title years - '51, '78, and '96.
This is the 18th season and 24th different calendar year with UK rated as #1.
Thanks again to Jon Scott's site (http://www.bigbluehistory.net/bb/statistics/statistics.html) as one of the main resources for questions like this. I also consulted collegepollarchive.com for this post.
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